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Hi Punters,

Last week was a positive one however we’re still down for the season. After Round 3 I’ll post an update on the results so far from both an AFL point of view and also overall. There are some line bets this week that I don’t necessarily agree with but I’m going to follow them anyhow as the ratings/systems says so. For example this weeks 3 main bets are on Adelaide, Hawthorn and Sydney all with approx 40 point lines against teams that aren’t necessarily great, but they haven’t been horrible this year either. In particular GWS and possibly the bulldogs may put up more fight then the bookies think. Nonetheless we follow the ratings and here are this weeks bets:

Line Bets (Chosen team underlined)
$40 on Adelaide Crows -44.5 vs Melbourne Demons @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
$20 on Essendon Bombers -31.5 vs Carlton Blues @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Fremantle Dockers -19.5 vs West Coast Eagles @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$40 on Hawthorn Hawks -43.5 vs Western Bulldogs @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Port Power -3.5 vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ $1.96 (Pinnacle)
$20 on Richmond Tigers -14.5 vs Brisbane Lions @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on St Kilda Saints +17.5 vs Collingwood Magpies @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$40 on Sydney Swans -40.5 vs GWS Giants @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Gold Coast Suns +38.5 vs Geelong Cats @ $2.00 (Topsport)

Head to Head Bets (Chosen team underlined)
$20 on Port Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ $1.787 (Pinnacle)

Personal Bets
Please note I’ve also placed some personal bets this week which I thought offered some value. I’ve included a bit of an explanation with each one as to why I decided to place the bets.

Firstly I did an additional $20 on St Kilda at the line with Topsport. I like St Kilda’s strategy of growing their list via the draft rather than attempting to poach stars with big money offers. They definitely seem to be building in the right manner and their forwardline now seems to have some firepower besides Riewoldt. Collingwood on the other hand may be without Pendles this week, Greenwood is injured, Sidebottom is injured and straight away thats a massive hit to your engine room. I believe friday night games in general are closer thus assuming St Kilda can keep Cloke on a leash St Kilda should at least cover the line, maybe even win the game!

My other personal bet was a multi including St Kilda line (as per explanation above), Gold Coast line and Fremantle line placed with topsport, $10 @ $8.00 odds. St Kilda is explained above but I’ll give a short explanation regarding the other games. Gold Coast have been pathetic so far this year and whilst an away game at geelong is a very hard task I just feel that if this team doesn’t show some fight this week without their capitain Ablett then some serious questions will be asked about if they can play without the master. Their backline is big enough and experienced enough now to do well against the Hawkins/Clark combo and their midfield *should* be able to match it if not outperform Geelong if they play to their potential. Hence I think 38.5 is a large line and GC should be able to cover it. The Fremantle line is just a simple case of the dockers dominating the derby’s in recent years, have a far superior team and West Coast having injuries to key personel.

Let’s hope for another solid round like last week and with any luck both the personal bets can hit as well.

Happy Punting!

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